Month: February 2019

Erdogan’s War on Turkey’s Rising Food Prices Leaves Casualties

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared war on food inflation. With food prices rising nearly 30 percent and looming critical local elections next month Erdogan is turning to unconventional methods to rein in costs.

Subsidized food is being sold at distribution centers in Istanbul and the capital, Ankara, along with several provincial cities. The centers are part of Erdogan’s war on inflation.

In the pouring rain in Istanbul’s Kadikoy district people patiently line up to take advantage of reduced prices. With staples like onions and potatoes tripling in price, the distribution centers appear welcome by people seeking relief from soaring price tags.

“The food prices are high. Sometimes you go to the street market and go back home without buying anything,” said Sule who works at a nearby university. “Why? Because the produce is so expensive. You go near the leeks, and you see it is 6, 7 lira. Spinach prices rose up to 10 liras. Ok, I can afford some, but larger families cannot buy at these prices.”

Last year’s currency collapse unleashed an inflationary wave, driving up costs of food production.

The inflation surge comes at an inopportune time for Erdogan’s AKP, with critical local elections for control of Turkey’s main cities scheduled in March.

Erdogan, already campaigning hard, is seeking to blame food wholesalers and supermarkets, accusing them of price gouging and even labeling them food terrorists.

“In recent days they began playing a game on Turkey. Prices of eggplants, tomatoes, potatoes, and cucumbers began to escalate. It was a terrorist attack,” said Erdogan.

“We will not allow those to launch this terror” he added. “I promise you we will deal with these terrorists who are behind these rising prices like we have dealt with other terrorists that threaten our country.”

Police are raiding supermarkets and wholesalers suspected of price gouging and hoarding. The Turkish Trade Ministry has created a computer app allowing customers to compare prices in shops and report those suspected of overcharging.

Major supermarkets, seeking to avoid Erdogan’s wrath, are slashing prices. Shop signs claim products are now being sold below cost, along with rationing on what can be bought.

“This has nothing to do with economics,” said economist Cengiz Aktar. “Turkey will dearly pay for these mistakes because these are gross economic mistakes. There will be huge price increases. People will have difficulties to buy food and the public finances will collapse one day.”

Rising costs and mounting state pressure on producers and retailers, has led to a new phenomenon in Turkey, “shrinkflation.”

“Shrinkflation has started, which is instead of rising prices, companies selling in smaller formats,” explains Atilla Yesilada, analysts for Global Source Partners.

“So a 100-gram chocolate bar is now being sold for the same price but it’s only 80 grams and it’s the same for toothpaste, etc. The plates are getting smaller in cheap restaurants, as people can’t afford full portions,” added Yesilada.

Istanbul’s “Sali Pazar,” is a traditional marketplace for bargains, drawing people from across the city.

However, the combination of subsidies and the state crackdown on prices is taking its toll on small traders. “It affected our sales by 50 percent. The customers come here and see the prices and don’t buy anything. They just walk off,” said Ali, looking at his unsold potatoes, which are selling at more than twice the price as at state distribution centers.

“Prices are very high (from wholesalers), he added. “You cannot compete with the state. How can we compete with the state? The state buys it for 3.5 liras and sells it to 2 liras.”

“My sales are not falling because I have not sold anything,” said tomato seller Hulusi, waving his hands in exasperation.

“How can sales go down when you don’t have any sales in the first place,” he added. “I have been screaming my heart out since morning and sold just 2 kilos to 2 customers.”

However, for Sali Markets customers eager for bargains, Erdogan’s price war is welcome.

 

“With the intervention of the president there has been some drop in the prices,” said Sule. “In the previous weeks they were quite high, and this makes the people content. Hopefully, this will keep going well.”

Driving down food prices and with it, public discontent, will be critical to Erdogan’s AKP maintaining control of key cities like Istanbul in next month’s local elections, analysts say.

“All the polls show the main concern for the voter will be the economy, and they will be going to vote to register their protests,” said Yesilada. “Nationwide, I expect AKP to suffer very large losses. I would not be too surprised if they lose Istanbul or Ankara.”

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Erdogan’s War on Turkey’s Rising Food Prices Leaves Casualties

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared war on food inflation. With food prices rising nearly 30 percent and looming critical local elections next month Erdogan is turning to unconventional methods to rein in costs.

Subsidized food is being sold at distribution centers in Istanbul and the capital, Ankara, along with several provincial cities. The centers are part of Erdogan’s war on inflation.

In the pouring rain in Istanbul’s Kadikoy district people patiently line up to take advantage of reduced prices. With staples like onions and potatoes tripling in price, the distribution centers appear welcome by people seeking relief from soaring price tags.

“The food prices are high. Sometimes you go to the street market and go back home without buying anything,” said Sule who works at a nearby university. “Why? Because the produce is so expensive. You go near the leeks, and you see it is 6, 7 lira. Spinach prices rose up to 10 liras. Ok, I can afford some, but larger families cannot buy at these prices.”

Last year’s currency collapse unleashed an inflationary wave, driving up costs of food production.

The inflation surge comes at an inopportune time for Erdogan’s AKP, with critical local elections for control of Turkey’s main cities scheduled in March.

Erdogan, already campaigning hard, is seeking to blame food wholesalers and supermarkets, accusing them of price gouging and even labeling them food terrorists.

“In recent days they began playing a game on Turkey. Prices of eggplants, tomatoes, potatoes, and cucumbers began to escalate. It was a terrorist attack,” said Erdogan.

“We will not allow those to launch this terror” he added. “I promise you we will deal with these terrorists who are behind these rising prices like we have dealt with other terrorists that threaten our country.”

Police are raiding supermarkets and wholesalers suspected of price gouging and hoarding. The Turkish Trade Ministry has created a computer app allowing customers to compare prices in shops and report those suspected of overcharging.

Major supermarkets, seeking to avoid Erdogan’s wrath, are slashing prices. Shop signs claim products are now being sold below cost, along with rationing on what can be bought.

“This has nothing to do with economics,” said economist Cengiz Aktar. “Turkey will dearly pay for these mistakes because these are gross economic mistakes. There will be huge price increases. People will have difficulties to buy food and the public finances will collapse one day.”

Rising costs and mounting state pressure on producers and retailers, has led to a new phenomenon in Turkey, “shrinkflation.”

“Shrinkflation has started, which is instead of rising prices, companies selling in smaller formats,” explains Atilla Yesilada, analysts for Global Source Partners.

“So a 100-gram chocolate bar is now being sold for the same price but it’s only 80 grams and it’s the same for toothpaste, etc. The plates are getting smaller in cheap restaurants, as people can’t afford full portions,” added Yesilada.

Istanbul’s “Sali Pazar,” is a traditional marketplace for bargains, drawing people from across the city.

However, the combination of subsidies and the state crackdown on prices is taking its toll on small traders. “It affected our sales by 50 percent. The customers come here and see the prices and don’t buy anything. They just walk off,” said Ali, looking at his unsold potatoes, which are selling at more than twice the price as at state distribution centers.

“Prices are very high (from wholesalers), he added. “You cannot compete with the state. How can we compete with the state? The state buys it for 3.5 liras and sells it to 2 liras.”

“My sales are not falling because I have not sold anything,” said tomato seller Hulusi, waving his hands in exasperation.

“How can sales go down when you don’t have any sales in the first place,” he added. “I have been screaming my heart out since morning and sold just 2 kilos to 2 customers.”

However, for Sali Markets customers eager for bargains, Erdogan’s price war is welcome.

 

“With the intervention of the president there has been some drop in the prices,” said Sule. “In the previous weeks they were quite high, and this makes the people content. Hopefully, this will keep going well.”

Driving down food prices and with it, public discontent, will be critical to Erdogan’s AKP maintaining control of key cities like Istanbul in next month’s local elections, analysts say.

“All the polls show the main concern for the voter will be the economy, and they will be going to vote to register their protests,” said Yesilada. “Nationwide, I expect AKP to suffer very large losses. I would not be too surprised if they lose Istanbul or Ankara.”

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Look But Don’t Touch as Smartphone’s Flexible Future Unfolds

Flexible and folding formats framed the future of smartphones this week as manufacturers focused on new forms in an effort to jolt the market out of uniformity and re-invigorate sales.

But anyone hoping to tap or swipe Huawei’s Mate X, a smartphone that wraps the screen around the front and back, was soon disappointed at Barcelona’s Mobile World Congress.

Initial cheers were quickly followed by gasps when the Chinese firm revealed its eye-watering 2,299 euros ($2,600) price tag, although that includes a 5G connection.

This is even more than Samsung’s Galaxy Fold, which was unveiled last week and will be priced from $1,980 when it goes on sale in some markets in April. It was on display in Barcelona in a glass case like a museum artefact.

While the hands-off stance indicates neither firm has a consumer-ready device, 2019 would be remembered as the year of the foldable Ben Wood, chief of research at CCS Insight, said, adding that the new format was still in its infancy.

“But we are at the stone age of devices with flexible displays; it’s a whole new phase of experimentation after the sea of smartphone sameness we have seen for the last decade.”

Samsung took the opposite approach to Huawei by putting its folding screen on the inside of its device, with another smaller screen on the front panel for use when its is closed.

“That was the solution we felt was best for longevity,” Samsung’s European Director of Mobile Portfolio & Commercial Strategy Mark Notton told Reuters.

Smartphone makers have been trying to innovate to persuade consumers to upgrade from devices which already meet most of their needs, in an effort to reverse falling sales.

And although more vendors will soon follow with their own takes on foldable displays, 2019 will not be the year they go mainstream, market analysts Canalys said. They will remain exclusively ultra-luxury devices with fewer than 2 million expected to be shipped worldwide this year, Canalys added.

The mobile market slipped 1.2 percent in 2018, research company Gartner says, although it expects growth of 1.6 percent in 2019, driven by replacement cycles in the largest and most saturated markets China, the United States and Western Europe.

Gearing up for 5G

With 5G next generation mobile networks not becoming widely available until 2023 in the United States and China and 2026 in Europe, analysts say, the vast majority of customers will be buying the latest 4G devices like Samsung new Galaxy S10.

Nonetheless, manufacturers such as LG were keen to show they could squeeze 5G technology into 4G smartphone form, although most lacked launch or pricing information.

Chinese maker OnePlus had a 5G device running a video game using a 5G connection on show, but visitors were teased with only a glimpse of the phone’s screen in a display cabinet.

“For us, launching means commercial availability, it doesn’t mean PowerPoint,” OnePlus co-founder Carl Pei told Reuters.

“We are confident we are going to be one of the first with a commercially available smartphone in Europe,” he said, adding that this would be within the first half of 2019.

Xiaomi Corp, which ranked fifth in smartphone shipments in the last quarter according to IDC, did reveal pricing information along with its first 5G device.

“Xiaomi has fired the starting gun with a $599 price. That will bring tears to the eyes of many other mobile phone makers,” Wood said, adding that many sub-scale makers such as Sony, LG and others could find it tough to make any kind of margin on 5G.

Sony did not show a 5G device, relying instead on its ownership of a major Hollywood studio to release a new line of Xperia phones with a 21:9 display ratio optimized to watch movies and Netflix content.

 

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Kenya Ride-Hailing Company ‘Little Cab’ Expanding to Tanzania, Ghana

Kenya’s ride-hailing company ‘Little Cab’ is expanding to Tanzania and Ghana. The company will start offering rides in Tanzania’s commercial capital Dar es Salaam next week and plans to launch in Accra by May. VOA’s Mariama Diallo reports.

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Kenya Ride-Hailing Company ‘Little Cab’ Expanding to Tanzania, Ghana

Kenya’s ride-hailing company ‘Little Cab’ is expanding to Tanzania and Ghana. The company will start offering rides in Tanzania’s commercial capital Dar es Salaam next week and plans to launch in Accra by May. VOA’s Mariama Diallo reports.

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Creating Venice Carnival Masks — a Labor of Love

The famed annual Venice Carnival is in full swing with revelers donning beautiful costumes and extraordinary masks. The masks range from historical classics, to modern, original creations. VOAs Deborah Block takes us to a shop in the city of canals that makes intricate masks by hand.

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Creating Venice Carnival Masks — a Labor of Love

The famed annual Venice Carnival is in full swing with revelers donning beautiful costumes and extraordinary masks. The masks range from historical classics, to modern, original creations. VOAs Deborah Block takes us to a shop in the city of canals that makes intricate masks by hand.

your ads here!

Erdogan’s War on Rising Food Prices Leaves Casualties

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared war on inflation after food prices in the country soared by 30 percent after last year’s collapse of the Turkish currency. In a bid aimed at securing his political future, Erdogan is taking radical measures to curb price increases after accusing food sellers of excessively hiking food prices. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.

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Erdogan’s War on Rising Food Prices Leaves Casualties

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared war on inflation after food prices in the country soared by 30 percent after last year’s collapse of the Turkish currency. In a bid aimed at securing his political future, Erdogan is taking radical measures to curb price increases after accusing food sellers of excessively hiking food prices. Dorian Jones reports from Istanbul.

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Conservationists Highlight Recovery of Key Species

Reporting on the state of the world’s wildlife can be dispiriting. But there are a few success stories. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports on some winning strategies that have brought some species back from the brink of extinction.

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Conservationists Highlight Recovery of Key Species

Reporting on the state of the world’s wildlife can be dispiriting. But there are a few success stories. VOA’s Kevin Enochs reports on some winning strategies that have brought some species back from the brink of extinction.

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Taiwan Concerns Mean China Defense Budget Likely to Defy Slowing Economy

A slowing economy is unlikely to crimp China’s 2019 defense budget rise, as Beijing earmarks more spending for modernization and big-ticket items like stealth jets, and focuses on Taiwan after a stern new year’s speech from President Xi Jinping.

The defense spending figure is closely watched worldwide for clues to China’s strategic intentions as it develops new military capabilities, including aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles.

In 2018, China unveiled its largest defense spending increase in three years, setting an 8.1 percent growth target for the year, fueling an ambitious military upgrade program and making its neighbors nervous.

The 2019 number should be revealed at the March 5 opening of the annual session of China’s largely rubber-stamp parliament, although in 2017 it was initially not announced, prompting renewed concerns about transparency.

China plans to set a lower economic growth target of 6-6.5 percent in 2019 compared with last year’s target of around 6.5 percent, policy sources have told Reuters. The government will also announced the economic growth target on March 5. 

However, the defense budget increase could well surpass that.

Influential state-run tabloid the Global Times, which takes a strongly nationalistic line, this month cited an unidentified military expert as saying “a stable 8-9 percent increase from 2018 would be a reasonable prediction.”

China still has a long way to go to catch Western forces because the number of advanced weapons now in its arsenal, such as the J-20 stealth fighter, remain limited, the paper said.

Xie Yue, a professor of political science at Tongji University in Shanghai and a security expert, said with a weakening economy there would naturally be an expectation for a slower increase in military spending.

“It should go down, as the defense budget is connected to economic growth, but certainly factors will probably mean it will still go up, like the South China Sea and Taiwan issues,” Xie said.

Xi’s January speech threatening to attack Taiwan should it not accept Chinese rule has shot the issue back up the agenda for China’s military thinkers, especially as the island gears up for presidential elections next year.

“The Taiwan question can’t keep being put off, passed down through the generations,” retired Chinese Major General Luo Yuan, one of the country’s most prominent and widely read military commentators, wrote on his blog last month. “Our generation must complete our historic mission.”

‘Itching for a fight’

One source with ties to China’s military said the armed forces were itching for a fight over self-ruled Taiwan, claimed by China as its sacred territory, especially after Xi’s speech.

“Every day, they’re like ‘fight, fight, fight,'” said the source, who regularly meets senior officers.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly warned of the threat from China, and vowed to defend the island and its democratic way of life. The United States has said it is closely watching Chinese intentions towards Taiwan.

“Even with just a broom, I would fight against China,” Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told parliament last week. “You would pay a price if you want to annex Taiwan.”

The United States again sent two Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait on Monday as the U.S. military increased the frequency of movement through the strategic waterway despite opposition from China.

China’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on this year’s military budget. China routinely says spending is for defensive purposes only, comparatively small and that critics just want to keep the country down.

“What people are scared of is China getting strong,” said Xu Guangyu, a senior consultant at the China Arm Control and Disarmament Association and another former senior Chinese officer, dismissing concerns about defense spending.

U.S. President Donald Trump has backed plans to request $750 billion from Congress for defense spending in 2019. That compares with the 1.11 trillion yuan ($165.40 billion) China set for its military budget in 2018.

China provides no breakdown of its defense budget, leading neighbors and other military powers to complain that Beijing’s lack of transparency has added to regional tension. China says it is fully transparent and no threat.

Diplomats and many foreign experts say China’s defense numbers probably underestimate true military spending for the People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest armed forces, which also runs the country’s space program.

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Taiwan Concerns Mean China Defense Budget Likely to Defy Slowing Economy

A slowing economy is unlikely to crimp China’s 2019 defense budget rise, as Beijing earmarks more spending for modernization and big-ticket items like stealth jets, and focuses on Taiwan after a stern new year’s speech from President Xi Jinping.

The defense spending figure is closely watched worldwide for clues to China’s strategic intentions as it develops new military capabilities, including aircraft carriers and anti-satellite missiles.

In 2018, China unveiled its largest defense spending increase in three years, setting an 8.1 percent growth target for the year, fueling an ambitious military upgrade program and making its neighbors nervous.

The 2019 number should be revealed at the March 5 opening of the annual session of China’s largely rubber-stamp parliament, although in 2017 it was initially not announced, prompting renewed concerns about transparency.

China plans to set a lower economic growth target of 6-6.5 percent in 2019 compared with last year’s target of around 6.5 percent, policy sources have told Reuters. The government will also announced the economic growth target on March 5. 

However, the defense budget increase could well surpass that.

Influential state-run tabloid the Global Times, which takes a strongly nationalistic line, this month cited an unidentified military expert as saying “a stable 8-9 percent increase from 2018 would be a reasonable prediction.”

China still has a long way to go to catch Western forces because the number of advanced weapons now in its arsenal, such as the J-20 stealth fighter, remain limited, the paper said.

Xie Yue, a professor of political science at Tongji University in Shanghai and a security expert, said with a weakening economy there would naturally be an expectation for a slower increase in military spending.

“It should go down, as the defense budget is connected to economic growth, but certainly factors will probably mean it will still go up, like the South China Sea and Taiwan issues,” Xie said.

Xi’s January speech threatening to attack Taiwan should it not accept Chinese rule has shot the issue back up the agenda for China’s military thinkers, especially as the island gears up for presidential elections next year.

“The Taiwan question can’t keep being put off, passed down through the generations,” retired Chinese Major General Luo Yuan, one of the country’s most prominent and widely read military commentators, wrote on his blog last month. “Our generation must complete our historic mission.”

‘Itching for a fight’

One source with ties to China’s military said the armed forces were itching for a fight over self-ruled Taiwan, claimed by China as its sacred territory, especially after Xi’s speech.

“Every day, they’re like ‘fight, fight, fight,'” said the source, who regularly meets senior officers.

Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen has repeatedly warned of the threat from China, and vowed to defend the island and its democratic way of life. The United States has said it is closely watching Chinese intentions towards Taiwan.

“Even with just a broom, I would fight against China,” Taiwan Premier Su Tseng-chang told parliament last week. “You would pay a price if you want to annex Taiwan.”

The United States again sent two Navy ships through the Taiwan Strait on Monday as the U.S. military increased the frequency of movement through the strategic waterway despite opposition from China.

China’s Defense Ministry did not respond to a request for comment on this year’s military budget. China routinely says spending is for defensive purposes only, comparatively small and that critics just want to keep the country down.

“What people are scared of is China getting strong,” said Xu Guangyu, a senior consultant at the China Arm Control and Disarmament Association and another former senior Chinese officer, dismissing concerns about defense spending.

U.S. President Donald Trump has backed plans to request $750 billion from Congress for defense spending in 2019. That compares with the 1.11 trillion yuan ($165.40 billion) China set for its military budget in 2018.

China provides no breakdown of its defense budget, leading neighbors and other military powers to complain that Beijing’s lack of transparency has added to regional tension. China says it is fully transparent and no threat.

Diplomats and many foreign experts say China’s defense numbers probably underestimate true military spending for the People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest armed forces, which also runs the country’s space program.

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Another Ceasefire: Can the US and China End Their Trade War?

Relief swept across world financial markets Monday after President Donald Trump pushed back a March 2 deadline in a trade dispute with China.

 

But the respite might not last.

 

The world’s two biggest economies have squared off over Beijing’s aggressive campaign to turn Chinese companies into world leaders in advanced industries such as robotics and electric vehicles. Both sides have said they’ve made progress but haven’t provided much detail.

 

“Popping the champagne today would be premature,” Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note.

 

Daco added that vast differences between the two countries “will prevent a significant de-escalation of trade tensions between the two giants.”

 

In the United States, business groups and lawmakers fear that Trump will settle for a deal that doesn’t require China to change its sharp-elbowed business practices.

 

A look at the dispute:

 

What Are the U.S. and CHINA Fighting About?

 

The United States accuses China of deploying predatory tactics in a headlong push to challenge American technological dominance. These, the U.S. says, include: outright theft of trade secrets, forcing foreign companies to hand over technology as the price of access to the Chinese market, and unfairly subsidizing Chinese tech companies and using regulations to hobble their foreign competitors.

 

The accusations elevate the standoff from a typical trade dispute to a battle over whether the United States or China dominates the industries of the future, the outcome of which has implications for national security.

 

Trump is also obsessed with America’s massive trade deficit with China, $336 billion in 2017 and likely higher last year.

 

Critics complain that the administration has been inconsistent about what it wants — sometimes demanding sweeping changes in Chinese economic policy, sometimes seeming willing to settle for China just buying more American stuff to narrow the trade deficit.

 

Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center think tank, said he would be disappointed if the Trump administration settles only for more exports to China and vague promises to make structural reforms. “The Trump administration could have had that in week one,” Daly said.

 

What’s Happened So Far?

 

In July, the Trump administration gradually began slapping import taxes on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing into changing its policies. It now has imposed 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports and 25 percent tariffs on another $50 billion.

 

Twice, Trump has pushed back plans to raise the tariffs on the $200 billion to 25 percent. He extended a Jan. 1 deadline by three months after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires Dec. 1. And on Sunday, following meetings last week between U.S. and Chinese negotiators, he delayed indefinitely the tariff hike that was scheduled to kick in at 12:01 EST March 2.

 

The U.S. is also restricting Chinese investment in high-tech American industries and U.S. exports of sensitive technology to China.

 

Meanwhile, the Chinese have punched back by slapping import taxes on $110 billion in U.S. goods, focusing on soybeans and agricultural products in a direct shot at Trump supporters in the American farm belt.

 

Forecasters at the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have all downgraded their forecasts for the global economy, citing the heightened trade tensions.

 

Are U.S. and Chinese Negotiators Making Headway?

 

They say they are but haven’t provided many particulars. Trump tweeted Sunday that negotiators had made “substantial progress” on issues including protection of intellectual property, coerced tech transfer, currency manipulation and U.S. access to the Chinese farm and services markets among “many other issues.” China’s official Xinhua news agency echoed that assessment.

 

Trump has said he would likely have to meet one-on-one with Xi — probably late next month at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida — to resolve the thorniest issues.

 

What Happens Next?

 

Trump sees the stock market as a measure of the success of his economic policies. Investors’ view is clear: When U.S.-China negotiations go well, American stocks rise. When talks falter, they drop.

 

So the question is whether Trump, having taken U.S.-China economic relations to the brink, has the patience to hold out in the face of likely stock-market volatility for an enforceable deal that requires China to change its behavior. Or whether he’ll agree to more exports and promises of change.

 

“If the U.S. has already achieved quite a bit, and we are just clarifying the details of substantial Chinese concessions, then that’s not a huge concern,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But if the U.S. has come away with very little in terms of binding commitments (after dropping the tariff deadline), then the chance of getting more in the coming weeks could be quite low.”

 

Daly at the Wilson Center faulted the administration for not imposing a new deadline. “They are expert at the use of time and delay until conditions have changed and leverage has been lost, to get a better outcome,” he said.

 

Trump has also alarmed Canada and critics by suggesting the U.S. might drop criminal charges against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, in a quest to cut a deal. The U.S. has charged Huawei with lying about violating sanctions against Iran and with stealing trade secrets. Canada arrested Meng Dec. 1 at America’s request and is weighing whether to extradite her to the United States. China arrested two Canadians in apparent retaliation.

 

Former Canadian Ambassador to China David Mulroney tweeted Monday that “it’s now the US that has to hang tough, and not sell out its integrity in Huawei case for a trade deal with China.”

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Another Ceasefire: Can the US and China End Their Trade War?

Relief swept across world financial markets Monday after President Donald Trump pushed back a March 2 deadline in a trade dispute with China.

 

But the respite might not last.

 

The world’s two biggest economies have squared off over Beijing’s aggressive campaign to turn Chinese companies into world leaders in advanced industries such as robotics and electric vehicles. Both sides have said they’ve made progress but haven’t provided much detail.

 

“Popping the champagne today would be premature,” Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a research note.

 

Daco added that vast differences between the two countries “will prevent a significant de-escalation of trade tensions between the two giants.”

 

In the United States, business groups and lawmakers fear that Trump will settle for a deal that doesn’t require China to change its sharp-elbowed business practices.

 

A look at the dispute:

 

What Are the U.S. and CHINA Fighting About?

 

The United States accuses China of deploying predatory tactics in a headlong push to challenge American technological dominance. These, the U.S. says, include: outright theft of trade secrets, forcing foreign companies to hand over technology as the price of access to the Chinese market, and unfairly subsidizing Chinese tech companies and using regulations to hobble their foreign competitors.

 

The accusations elevate the standoff from a typical trade dispute to a battle over whether the United States or China dominates the industries of the future, the outcome of which has implications for national security.

 

Trump is also obsessed with America’s massive trade deficit with China, $336 billion in 2017 and likely higher last year.

 

Critics complain that the administration has been inconsistent about what it wants — sometimes demanding sweeping changes in Chinese economic policy, sometimes seeming willing to settle for China just buying more American stuff to narrow the trade deficit.

 

Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China and the United States at the Wilson Center think tank, said he would be disappointed if the Trump administration settles only for more exports to China and vague promises to make structural reforms. “The Trump administration could have had that in week one,” Daly said.

 

What’s Happened So Far?

 

In July, the Trump administration gradually began slapping import taxes on Chinese goods to pressure Beijing into changing its policies. It now has imposed 10 percent tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports and 25 percent tariffs on another $50 billion.

 

Twice, Trump has pushed back plans to raise the tariffs on the $200 billion to 25 percent. He extended a Jan. 1 deadline by three months after meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires Dec. 1. And on Sunday, following meetings last week between U.S. and Chinese negotiators, he delayed indefinitely the tariff hike that was scheduled to kick in at 12:01 EST March 2.

 

The U.S. is also restricting Chinese investment in high-tech American industries and U.S. exports of sensitive technology to China.

 

Meanwhile, the Chinese have punched back by slapping import taxes on $110 billion in U.S. goods, focusing on soybeans and agricultural products in a direct shot at Trump supporters in the American farm belt.

 

Forecasters at the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development have all downgraded their forecasts for the global economy, citing the heightened trade tensions.

 

Are U.S. and Chinese Negotiators Making Headway?

 

They say they are but haven’t provided many particulars. Trump tweeted Sunday that negotiators had made “substantial progress” on issues including protection of intellectual property, coerced tech transfer, currency manipulation and U.S. access to the Chinese farm and services markets among “many other issues.” China’s official Xinhua news agency echoed that assessment.

 

Trump has said he would likely have to meet one-on-one with Xi — probably late next month at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida — to resolve the thorniest issues.

 

What Happens Next?

 

Trump sees the stock market as a measure of the success of his economic policies. Investors’ view is clear: When U.S.-China negotiations go well, American stocks rise. When talks falter, they drop.

 

So the question is whether Trump, having taken U.S.-China economic relations to the brink, has the patience to hold out in the face of likely stock-market volatility for an enforceable deal that requires China to change its behavior. Or whether he’ll agree to more exports and promises of change.

 

“If the U.S. has already achieved quite a bit, and we are just clarifying the details of substantial Chinese concessions, then that’s not a huge concern,” said Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But if the U.S. has come away with very little in terms of binding commitments (after dropping the tariff deadline), then the chance of getting more in the coming weeks could be quite low.”

 

Daly at the Wilson Center faulted the administration for not imposing a new deadline. “They are expert at the use of time and delay until conditions have changed and leverage has been lost, to get a better outcome,” he said.

 

Trump has also alarmed Canada and critics by suggesting the U.S. might drop criminal charges against Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei and its chief financial officer, Meng Wanzhou, in a quest to cut a deal. The U.S. has charged Huawei with lying about violating sanctions against Iran and with stealing trade secrets. Canada arrested Meng Dec. 1 at America’s request and is weighing whether to extradite her to the United States. China arrested two Canadians in apparent retaliation.

 

Former Canadian Ambassador to China David Mulroney tweeted Monday that “it’s now the US that has to hang tough, and not sell out its integrity in Huawei case for a trade deal with China.”

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Iraqi Antique Collector Turns His House into a Museum

There is more than a century of Iraqi history in Sheikh Yousif Akar’s house, a modest home in the holy city of Najaf which the retired teacher has crammed full of local antiques collected over 50 years.

Rifles dating back to when the city was run by the Ottomans or the British sit alongside drinking vessels, coins and historic photographs.

The small museum has attracted a few curious antique lovers, but he rarely advertises for visitors as his house is too small to receive guests.

The 80-year-old hopes the state will take over the collection when he is gone.

“At the end of my life, I wish they would allocate to a place for me to keep these antiquities … for Najaf, for Iraq” he said.

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Iraqi Antique Collector Turns His House into a Museum

There is more than a century of Iraqi history in Sheikh Yousif Akar’s house, a modest home in the holy city of Najaf which the retired teacher has crammed full of local antiques collected over 50 years.

Rifles dating back to when the city was run by the Ottomans or the British sit alongside drinking vessels, coins and historic photographs.

The small museum has attracted a few curious antique lovers, but he rarely advertises for visitors as his house is too small to receive guests.

The 80-year-old hopes the state will take over the collection when he is gone.

“At the end of my life, I wish they would allocate to a place for me to keep these antiquities … for Najaf, for Iraq” he said.

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Scientists: Evidence for Man-Made Global Warming Hits ‘Gold Standard’

Evidence for man-made global warming has reached a “gold standard” level of certainty, adding pressure for cuts in greenhouse gases to limit rising temperatures, scientists said Monday.

“Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals,” the U.S.-led team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change of satellite measurements of rising temperatures over the past 40 years.

They said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a “five-sigma” level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.

Such a “gold standard” was applied in 2012, for instance, to confirm the discovery of the Higgs boson subatomic particle, a basic building block of the universe.

Benjamin Santer, lead author of Monday’s study at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said he hoped the findings would win over skeptics and spur action.

“The narrative out there that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” he told Reuters. “We do.”

Mainstream scientists say the burning of fossil fuels is causing more floods, droughts, heat waves and rising sea levels.

U.S. President Donald Trump has often cast doubt on global warming and plans to pull out of the 197-nation Paris climate agreement which seeks to end the fossil fuel era this century by shifting to cleaner energies such as wind and solar power.

Sixty-two percent of Americans polled in 2018 believed that climate change has a human cause, up from 47 percent in 2013, according to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Satellite data

Monday’s findings, by researchers in the United States, Canada and Scotland, said evidence for global warming reached the five sigma level by 2005 in two of three sets of satellite data widely used by researchers, and in 2016 in the third.

Professor John Christy, of the University of Alabama in Huntsville which runs the third set of data, said there were still many gaps in understanding climate change. His data show a slower pace of warming than the other two sets.

“You may see a certain fingerprint that indicates human influence, but that the actual intensity of the influence is minor [as our satellite data indicate],” he told Reuters.

Separately in 2013, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that it is “extremely likely,” or at least 95 percent probable, that human activities have been the main cause of climate change since the 1950s.

‘Virtually certain’

Peter Stott of the British Met Office, who was among the scientists drawing that conclusion and was not involved in Monday’s study, said he would favor raising the probability one notch to “virtually certain,” or 99-100 percent.

“The alternative explanation of natural factors dominating has got even less likely,” he told Reuters.

The last four years have been the hottest since records began in the 19th century.

The IPCC will next publish a formal assessment of the probabilities in 2021.

“I would be reluctant to raise to 99-100 percent, but there is no doubt there is more evidence of change in the global signals over a wider suite of ocean indices and atmospheric indices,” said Professor Nathan Bindoff, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania.

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Scientists: Evidence for Man-Made Global Warming Hits ‘Gold Standard’

Evidence for man-made global warming has reached a “gold standard” level of certainty, adding pressure for cuts in greenhouse gases to limit rising temperatures, scientists said Monday.

“Humanity cannot afford to ignore such clear signals,” the U.S.-led team wrote in the journal Nature Climate Change of satellite measurements of rising temperatures over the past 40 years.

They said confidence that human activities were raising the heat at the Earth’s surface had reached a “five-sigma” level, a statistical gauge meaning there is only a one-in-a-million chance that the signal would appear if there was no warming.

Such a “gold standard” was applied in 2012, for instance, to confirm the discovery of the Higgs boson subatomic particle, a basic building block of the universe.

Benjamin Santer, lead author of Monday’s study at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California, said he hoped the findings would win over skeptics and spur action.

“The narrative out there that scientists don’t know the cause of climate change is wrong,” he told Reuters. “We do.”

Mainstream scientists say the burning of fossil fuels is causing more floods, droughts, heat waves and rising sea levels.

U.S. President Donald Trump has often cast doubt on global warming and plans to pull out of the 197-nation Paris climate agreement which seeks to end the fossil fuel era this century by shifting to cleaner energies such as wind and solar power.

Sixty-two percent of Americans polled in 2018 believed that climate change has a human cause, up from 47 percent in 2013, according to the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication.

Satellite data

Monday’s findings, by researchers in the United States, Canada and Scotland, said evidence for global warming reached the five sigma level by 2005 in two of three sets of satellite data widely used by researchers, and in 2016 in the third.

Professor John Christy, of the University of Alabama in Huntsville which runs the third set of data, said there were still many gaps in understanding climate change. His data show a slower pace of warming than the other two sets.

“You may see a certain fingerprint that indicates human influence, but that the actual intensity of the influence is minor [as our satellite data indicate],” he told Reuters.

Separately in 2013, the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that it is “extremely likely,” or at least 95 percent probable, that human activities have been the main cause of climate change since the 1950s.

‘Virtually certain’

Peter Stott of the British Met Office, who was among the scientists drawing that conclusion and was not involved in Monday’s study, said he would favor raising the probability one notch to “virtually certain,” or 99-100 percent.

“The alternative explanation of natural factors dominating has got even less likely,” he told Reuters.

The last four years have been the hottest since records began in the 19th century.

The IPCC will next publish a formal assessment of the probabilities in 2021.

“I would be reluctant to raise to 99-100 percent, but there is no doubt there is more evidence of change in the global signals over a wider suite of ocean indices and atmospheric indices,” said Professor Nathan Bindoff, a climate scientist at the University of Tasmania.

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Mexican Leader Knocks Racism at Home After ‘Roma’ Oscar Wins

Mexico’s president on Monday denounced racism in his country a day after the Mexican film Roma emerged as a big winner at the Academy Awards with a plot that highlighted prejudice and inequality.

Mexican filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won the best director Oscar on Sunday for his semi-autobiographical film Roma, which told the story of an indigenous domestic worker who cares for a middle-class family in 1970s Mexico City.

The movie also won awards for best foreign language film and cinematography, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador fielded several questions about Roma at his regular morning press conference.

Asked if he agreed with Cuaron that Mexican society remains rife with racist prejudice, the veteran leftist did not mince his words.

“I completely agree. Unfortunately, there is a lot of racism in Mexico,” he said.

Lopez Obrador, who in the 1970s worked for the indigenous affairs bureau in his home state of Tabasco in southern Mexico, has pledged to give priority to the poor as president.

Cuaron noted that the film emphasized the divided nature of Mexico’s social structure, opening up a much-needed discussion on racism and domestic worker rights.

“It’s a moment in which the country has recognized itself as a racist country,” he said at an event in Los Angeles last week.

In his acceptance speech, he thanked the Academy for recognizing a movie centered around an indigenous woman, saying her character represents the “70 million domestic workers in the world without work rights.”

Lopez Obrador admitted that he has yet to see the movie, but said he will do so soon. He added that the success of Roma has become a source of pride for many Mexicans.

Named for the neighborhood in the Mexican capital where it is set, Roma stars Yalitza Aparicio as a maid named Cleo who becomes pregnant as she looks after a family with four children just as the parents are splitting up.

While cheers echoed through Roma when the film began collecting Oscars on Sunday, revelers were disappointed when Aparicio did not win the Best Actress award, the first indigenous woman to be nominated for the honor.

Reactions to her performance sparked a debate in Mexico over discrimination faced by darker-skinned indigenous or mixed-race Mexicans, a topic often relegated to the sidelines of political discussions in the country.

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Mexican Leader Knocks Racism at Home After ‘Roma’ Oscar Wins

Mexico’s president on Monday denounced racism in his country a day after the Mexican film Roma emerged as a big winner at the Academy Awards with a plot that highlighted prejudice and inequality.

Mexican filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron won the best director Oscar on Sunday for his semi-autobiographical film Roma, which told the story of an indigenous domestic worker who cares for a middle-class family in 1970s Mexico City.

The movie also won awards for best foreign language film and cinematography, and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador fielded several questions about Roma at his regular morning press conference.

Asked if he agreed with Cuaron that Mexican society remains rife with racist prejudice, the veteran leftist did not mince his words.

“I completely agree. Unfortunately, there is a lot of racism in Mexico,” he said.

Lopez Obrador, who in the 1970s worked for the indigenous affairs bureau in his home state of Tabasco in southern Mexico, has pledged to give priority to the poor as president.

Cuaron noted that the film emphasized the divided nature of Mexico’s social structure, opening up a much-needed discussion on racism and domestic worker rights.

“It’s a moment in which the country has recognized itself as a racist country,” he said at an event in Los Angeles last week.

In his acceptance speech, he thanked the Academy for recognizing a movie centered around an indigenous woman, saying her character represents the “70 million domestic workers in the world without work rights.”

Lopez Obrador admitted that he has yet to see the movie, but said he will do so soon. He added that the success of Roma has become a source of pride for many Mexicans.

Named for the neighborhood in the Mexican capital where it is set, Roma stars Yalitza Aparicio as a maid named Cleo who becomes pregnant as she looks after a family with four children just as the parents are splitting up.

While cheers echoed through Roma when the film began collecting Oscars on Sunday, revelers were disappointed when Aparicio did not win the Best Actress award, the first indigenous woman to be nominated for the honor.

Reactions to her performance sparked a debate in Mexico over discrimination faced by darker-skinned indigenous or mixed-race Mexicans, a topic often relegated to the sidelines of political discussions in the country.

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Shopping Street Rises From the Ashes of War in Libya’s Benghazi

The old center of Benghazi lies in ruins but one shopping street has sprung up in the war-ravaged Libyan city, with sportswear and fashion stores that would not be out of place in Dubai or Istanbul.

Foreign brands are tapping into residents’ desire to enjoy shopping again after a three-year city war when their minds were concentrated on getting fuel or moving to safer areas.

Imports were limited as fighting between Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army and his mostly Islamist opponents forced Benghazi’s port to close.

But with the end of conflict in 2017, shops have returned and Venice Street, with its trendy new stores and elegant cafes, has brought back a level of wealthy consumerism.

That contrasts with much of the city where some buildings still show bullet holes from World War II, when Benghazi changed hands between British and German troops.

Former leader Moammar Gadhafi neglected eastern Libya, where Benghazi is located, during his 42 years in power in punishment for political opposition there, and what is now Venice Street was mostly wasteland until his overthrow in 2011.

Residents have money in their bank accounts, as most work for the state, but not necessarily cash as there is a shortage of bank notes.

“It’s good that some traders started accepting checks,” said Mustafa Bazara, shopping with his sister for shirts. Checks are accepted in some shops at a premium as they can usually only be cashed on the black market for a fee.

Ahmed al-Orfy, who runs a new fashion store, said he had high hopes for Venice street: “We have security and the ambition to be on same level as the Champs-Elysees.”

($1 = 1.3849 Libyan dinars)

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